Thursday, October 17, 2013

Exponential growth of technology.  It's interesting to see . how soon we will approach Singularity. The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress (again at today’s rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. "

Ray Kurzweil inventor, futurist and technologist, has an idea about this called: "The Law of Accelerating Returns".  This essay promotes some wild ideas like this one: "Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history."  Kurzweil

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